About us


Contact info


Order books

Welcome to a chapter of the e-book Disaster Investigation.

1.15 The correct Stability of the 'Estonia' calculated but censored. Forssberg manipulates the Investigation

On 26 October 1994, when Stenström made his status reports 1.13, he also sent a fax (11) to Forssberg, where he requested that the stability of the 'Estonia' with water on the car deck in the superstructure should be calculated and that the heads of the Estonian and Finnish delegations should be informed. Forssberg refused the request according to a note on the fax. The reason was probably the idiotic 'Status Report' attached to the fax. There Stenström stated that he thought that the inflow into the superstructure through a partly open ramp was 1-2 m3/second and that it should have taken 500 - 1 000 seconds to fill up the car deck, so that the 'Estonia' capsized. It should however be verified, according to Stenström. Stenström did not understand that 500 - 1 000 seconds of water inflow - 8.33-16.66 minutes! - causing slow listing should have been detected by the crew and that the suggestion destroyed the false sequence of events - sudden listing - already announced to the media by Forssberg and others first 4 October and later 17 October.

The fax is also evidence that Stenström was not aware of the statements of the survivors of a sudden list - >30 degrees - and then equilibrium at about 15 degrees list. Stenström thus wrote that the list developed during 8.33-16.66 minutes - slowly - exactly as Treu had (been forced to?) stated in his early testimonies to the Commission.

By chance the writer met Stenström in London Monday the 31 October 1994 (we were members of an IMO-panel about oil tanker safety) and the writer kindly suggested to Stenström to check the stability with water in the superstructure. Stenström went pale and told the writer that he 'did not know what was going on'. But the writer knew. The 'Estonia' should have turned turtle in one minute with 1 500-2 000 tons of water on the car deck in the superstructure. Later until 1996 Stenström always refused to discuss the stability of the 'Estonia' with the writer and, in October 1996, Stenström informed that he never wanted to see the writer ever. In February 1997 Stenström died of cancer.

Huss calculates the Capsize

In spite of the refusal of Forssberg the Swedish expert Huss (naturally) calculated the stability in a report to the Commission/ SHK (12) dated 950104 1.9, where Huss shows that it should have taken six minutes to fill up the car deck in the superstructure of the 'Estonia' with 2 100 tons of water, if the ramp was completely open!

Then the 'Estonia' should have capsized and floated upside down on the undamaged, watertight hull.

Forssberg registered both the fax (11) and the report (12) as confidential working papers, which were not circulated among the other members of the Commission. It seems that Forssberg and his unknown masters planned to write the false investigation report themselves. Neither Huss nor Stenström protested against this strange censorship. The above shows how Forssberg manipulated Stenström and the Commission already latest at the end of October 1994, while Huss was manipulated by Stenström and Forssberg in January 1995. The falsifications of investigation information continued with the dive examination - see next chapter.

Survivors should not be interviewed

At about the same time the expert Bengt Schager asked permission from Forssberg to interview a large number of passengers and crew to obtain a clearer picture of the course of events. The request was denied immediately by Olof Forssberg himself without checking with the other members of the Commission, e.g. Lehtola. Bengt Schager was told that he should only study the protocols of the questionings by the police and make a summary report. This Schager later made in two reports 2.1, which were handed in to the Commission at the meetings in January and March 1995. According to these reports the sudden listing had occurred already at 01.02-01.05 hrs and then the 'Estonia' had floated with stability and increasing list - without capsizing - until about 01.30 hrs.

The Commission apparently decided to completely ignore all these new facts, as the heads of the three investigation delegations had already announced that the accident - the listing - occurred at 01.15 hrs. The reports of Schager were also registered as secret working papers in the SHK archive.

Many experts of the Commission were fully aware in November 1994 that the official cause of accident and the alleged course of events were manipulations - directed by Forssberg.


To 1.16 Back to index